“People will always have children,” was German Chancellor Adenauer’s response to criticism of his pension reform in 1957. In retrospect, Adenauer could not have been more wrong. The continuously low birth rates of the past decades have resulted in a historically unprecedented demographic situation: countries around the world are seeing their population pyramids turn upside-down. While this trend occurs in most countries, it has specific implications for democracies.
Male and female citizens enjoy suffrage in all Western liberal democracies, often starting at the age of 18. While the principle of “one person, one vote” is objectively fair, our democratic institutions were designed at a time when demographic outlooks were drastically different. The growing number of elderly voters means that they will hold increasing political bargaining power at the cost of middle-aged and young voting blocs. This is detrimental to the concept of democracy as we know it today. The current demographic transformation is irreversible in the short and medium term. Birth rates are decreasing slowly but steadily, meaning that their effects are often felt at a time when policy intervention is long overdue.
The current demographic transition means that the largest part of the electorate is voting for policies that affect it for the shortest period of time. This creates an intergenerational clash of interests. Formerly, working populations had the strongest political voice. Now, political parties are much more tempted to cater to older people’s interests, as they can offer them successful election results. Therefore, long-term structural reforms to preserve the welfare state lose traction. In fact, the very reforms necessary to update the institutions according to modern demographic conditions become virtually impossible.
A larger number of retirees means a growing financial burden on the shoulders of the working population. Therefore, immigration will continue to be an important variable for high-income countries to ensure future prosperity. An increase in the legal retirement age is only partially effective, as many physically demanding jobs cannot be fulfilled in older age. Similarly, higher levels of automation in production and AI integration cannot wholly replace human work. Immigration would be the most viable option to offset labour shortages. Yet, democracies should foster stricter integration policies to strengthen social cohesion. To achieve that, societies must not leave the issue of immigration to a certain subset of parties but collectively devise sensible integration measures.
Another measure to avoid government of the old, by the old, and for the old would be a reform or policy changing young voter turnout and political participation. Younger voters are less likely to vote than older generations, but their absent votes exacerbate the dominance that elderly voters hold in elections. Young people should be made aware of the impact their votes carry through better political education in school and in the media. Additionally, democracies need to implement reforms to enhance youth representation in their political processes.
The latent nature of low birth rates is dangerous, but it offers us a time frame during which we can put well-reasoned policies on track and adjust our democratic systems. The legal voting age should be lowered to 16, encouraging young people to engage in politics at an earlier stage. Additionally, given the increasing time we spend in retirement and the fact that generally children are not eligible to vote until they are 18, a maximum voting age should be defined. Ideally, this age should be linked to the average life expectancy of a given country. This may be complemented by a maximum age to hold political offices. Secondly, the idea of proxy votes should be explored. If a maximum age proves irreconcilable with constitutional legislation, this softer approach gives parents the opportunity to vote on behalf of their children.
Lastly, a general demonisation of the elderly must be avoided. Older people have an emotional stake in the wellbeing of their children and grandchildren, and it would be wrong to claim that they vote exclusively in their own interest. Education about demographic change and its political implications is key to ensure intergenerational solidarity. This solidarity is a treasure we should not give away lightly.
Written by Adrian Huber, Edited by Leo Hirnschrodt
Photo Credit: Juan Pablo Serrano (uploaded July 18, 2018) on pexels.
