The Persian Gulf, located at the vital geopolitical intersection and crisscrossed by major global energy corridors, has long held a main place in international politics. Recent developments may mark the beginning of a fundamental shift in the regional order by finding new ways of possible collective security. Coordinated attacks on Qatar by Iran in June (on Al Udeid American Air Base) and by Israel in September (on Hamas officials in Doha) signal a profound transformation in regional security dynamics, calling into question strategic assumptions that have shaped Gulf stability for more than half a century. In the context of intensifying Iran-Israel hostilities, these incidents compel a reassessment of the regional power configuration.  

The Erosion of America’s Security Guarantee

For decades, the security doctrine of Arab states in the Gulf region rested on a core assumption: the United States would act as their ultimate security backstop. American military presence was viewed as essential for deterring external threats and ensuring regime continuity, especially after the 1990-1991 Gulf War. However, the dual strikes on Qatar by Iran and Israel have starkly revealed the fragility of this arrangement. Washington’s failure to defend a key ally was interpreted not as an oversight but as implicit acquiescence, undermining the legitimacy of the U.S.-Gulf partnership.

Gulf states also believed that by deepening their integration into Western (and particularly American) economic and security systems, they could sustain their strategic value while reducing dependence. While energy markets once served as the main conduit for this integration, from the 2000s onward, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE increasingly positioned themselves as strategic enablers of U.S. influence.

Over time, these states evolved from passive beneficiaries of American protection into active instruments of U.S. power – especially in counterterrorism and regional diplomacy. A pivotal moment came with the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. Leaders in Abu Dhabi and Manama saw this move as a chance to gain greater sway in Washington. The Qatari crisis exposed the flaw in this logic: alignment with U.S. interests did not translate into tangible security guarantees or deterrence against Israeli action. 

The Collapse of the Old Equilibrium

For over a decade, Gulf security strategies were anchored in two key tenets: containing Iran as the primary threat through the U.S.-led defense integration and cautiously managing relations with Israel to mitigate its adversarial posture. Nowadays, that equilibrium is breaking down.

This shift stems from two converging trends. Israel, once seen as a U.S.-managed partner, has emerged as an assertive, independent actor capable of projecting force into the Gulf with little fear of consequences. Currently, Israel operates with what appears to be strategic impunity. Even from its closest ally. At the same time, the decreasing of U.S. military forces – once viewed as temporary – has come to be seen as a permanent realignment. Gulf leaders had hoped that a change in U.S. leadership or strategic recalibration would restore Washington’s role as a reliable protector. That hope has now faded. The American military retreat from the Gulf is increasingly perceived as irreversible.

The collapse of the old security paradigm is further evident in Washington’s transactional approach – prioritizing short-term interests over enduring alliances and offering no credible assurances. Despite Gulf pledges to invest more than $3.2 trillion on the U.S. economy, the Trump administration failed to shield Qatar, a critical partner. This episode offers a new reality: while the Gulf remains indispensable to American influence, it can no longer rely on U.S. security commitments.

Reshaping Threat Perceptions

The Iranian and Israeli strikes on Qatari territories in 2025 are not random episodes but watershed moments. They echo the shock of the Abqaiq attack – widely attributed to Iran – which targeted Saudi Arabia’s core oil infrastructure. Although the Houthis claimed responsibility, the muted U.S. response jolted Riyadh into a sober reassessment of its reliance on American protection. 

Qatar faced a parallel reckoning in June 2025, when Washington proved unable to constrain Iran. Similarly, in September, Trump’s administration did not rein in Israel. For Gulf states, these failures confirm that U.S. security guarantees are no longer dependable. Worse still, they increasingly interpret American inaction as tacit support for Israel’s broader regional agenda – one that extends beyond the Gaza Strip and now directly threatens Arab allies in pursuit of narrow, short-term objectives.

From the Gulf perspective, Israel has effectively become a rogue actor whose operations, conducted under the U.S. security order, are now viewed as more destabilizing than Iran’s policy. The glaring double standard – Israel acting with impunity while Iran faces relentless pressure – has fueled deep resentment and a sense of betrayal.

The United States is increasingly seen not as a protector but as a “free rider”, extracting economic and strategic benefits from the region while evading responsibility for its security.

In response, Gulf states have begun rethinking their strategies. Doha long pursued a policy of active neutrality: hosting U.S. bases, engaging Iran in dialogue and mediating between Israel and Hamas. This approach has been severely tested over the last months. The main topic is clear: neutrality alone offers no immunity.

Creating a New Pillar of Stability

Gulf states must therefore strengthen their strategic independence. To deter aggression, they need to build indigenous capabilities – including missile defense and retaliatory strike systems. The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf must also be transformed from a place for discussions into a serious collective defense framework. To offset the vacuum created by America’s retreat, Gulf countries should actively diversify their international partnerships – engaging powers like Russia, China and India. In addition, they can no longer outsource mediation or crisis management to Washington. A modern concept of neutrality must be multilateral, anchored in support from international institutions and a wider array of global stakeholders.

While Qatar’s diplomatic role remains valuable, it must now be integrated into a more robust, regionally driven security architecture. Unlike the ill-defined Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), only briefly referenced by Donald Trump during his first term, the new framework must be resilient, self-sustaining and strategically autonomous.

At present, Gulf states are caught between two revisionist powers: Iran and Israel. Both of them have signaled intentions to strike regional targets. With the United States no longer a dependable shield, the creation of a third pillar of stability is imperative. This pillar must be built by the Gulf states themselves, grounded in self-reliance, collective defense and strategic partnerships that extend beyond U.S. influence. Only through such an approach can the Gulf states preserve its role as the historic crossroads of West and East, protect its sovereignty and maintain its position as the world’s most critical energy hub.

Written by Artsiom Palavinski, Edited by Kate Willeford

Photo Credit: wirestock (uploaded February, 2021) on Freepik.