The global age structure is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. We are witnessing the flattening and even inversion of the population pyramid for the first time in history. Fertility rates for most countries in the world are currently under their associated replacement rates or continuously declining. The numbers show that there are less and less working age people per retiree, especially in high income countries. This creates serious consequences, as our modern economic and political models operate under the expectation of long-term population increases and a majority of working-age people. Thus, societies must find a solution to how the toppled population pyramid can be managed economically and its aging population sustained.
A few measures to tackle this issue could be increasing working age as lifespan increases, young worker immigration, and heightening productivity. As lifespans continue to extend, fertility rates fall, and costs of living rise. We already see a large number of countries in which the effective retirement age has increased and bridge employment has risen. Thus, the first measure is already enacted through individual choice, reducing the burden on younger generations and society. There is also a growing trend of flexible retirement. The idea of slowly reducing hours, or even taking up other types of work to continue living a satisfying life and as a valuable source of additional income in later years is gaining popularity.
Several countries have also promoted young worker immigration. However, two issues arise which make this option unfeasible in the long term. The first is that the world as a whole shows a declining trend in fertility rates. Consequently, immigration only redistributes aging demographic pressures. The second issue concerns social cohesion. Rapid demographic change can prompt political debates about identity, majority-minority dynamics, and the perceived pace of cultural change. As immigration increases in societies with declining native-born populations, tensions may arise when integration systems are insufficient to support social, economic, and cultural inclusion. These challenges have become politically salient in several democracies, where public pressure has contributed to calls for stricter controls on immigration, particularly unauthorised immigration and the management of temporary asylum flows.
There are more and more innovations every year that increase the productivity of individuals, making it possible to maintain quality of life and semblance of our current economic system. Whether this is AI, faster ways of travel, or the washing machine—technology has a historical precedent for increasing productivity, and as a consequence improving daily life. In aging societies, part of this productivity increase can be leveraged for the ability to take care of the growing proportion of elderly.
However, the effectiveness of any economic strategy depends on the political environment in which it is implemented. Demographic aging alters not only economic structures but also the distribution of political power. Looking at democracies, aging demographic shifts are seen to concentrate political power in the elderly population. This incentivises the political system to cater towards older citizens who are not only economically reliant on the working population, but also have fundamentally different needs than younger people. Simultaneously, the younger generation is society’s future. Political actors are, thus, often at cross-purposes when it comes to related pension, tax, and labour matters. Democracies must navigate these demographic and representational challenges in ways that protect both institutional stability and the principle of political equality. Parents could exercise a proxy vote on behalf of their underage children, on the premise that parents act in their children’s long-term interests. Such mechanisms could expand representation to younger cohorts without lowering the voting age to a point where participants may not yet possess the cognitive maturity, independence, or civic understanding associated with informed electoral decision-making. Simultaneously, it avoids restricting voting rights for older adults, which would conflict with foundational democratic norms of universal and equal suffrage.
The world is confronted by an unprecedented shift in age demographics. For democracies to rise to the challenge, they must first accept this, then look to manage the economic difficulties that accompany a flattening population pyramid, and most importantly find ways to implement their solutions despite contradictory political impulses.
Written by Christopher Hauff, Edited by Sarah Jiayi Drogies
Photo Credit: Juan Pablo Serrano (uploaded July 18, 2018) on pexels.
